I wasn't going to post, then I was, then I wasn't, now after seeing this headline
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090309/...ge/help_wanted , here I am......
I will apologize beforehand as I am going to ramble and hit various points, mainly because I didn't respond when I saw them the first time.
Little background of my 12 years in the financial services industry...I've been an investment advisor with a large midwestern bank for the last 7 years, was at a small local Indiana bank for the previous 5 years, 3 of which I was licensed in invesments. After what we saw in 00-02, I didn't think we'd be in another bear so soon, but having said that, in hindsight, it's easy to see why.
Back when I was doing loans in the late 90's, I remember telling the appraiser, I need the value to be XXX, and I honestly don't remember it ever not happening. Why? Lack of regulation is my guess. When we moved on from our starter home to a nicer home in 2003, there were 10 lots left in our old subdivision undeveloped and another 10 houses were already in foreclosure due to ARM's and taxes on the properties. That was 6 years ago, in a 130 track subdivision. Looking back, those were warning signs.
Leaders Edge - I agreed a lot with what you said, I truly believe we will pull through this, eventually. What I disagree with, is the so what, unless you own bank shares or work at one, this doesn't affect you. Obviously, I qualify under both issues, but this is why I beg to differ. That bank that tightens its lending policy (sometimes rightfully so) affects everything. Small employers can't get LOC's for cash flow, younger people starting out can't get a quality loan to afford the car or house. Don't get me wrong, there were tons of people geting those cars and loans who shouldn't of. But this affects all of us.....case in point, I have excellent credit. In the past, my current credit score, would of been enough for me to almost state my requirements when asking for credit. I recently tried to refinance my house. Problem #1, the Gov't mortgage programs raised the credit score tiers to get the best rates. With a 737 credit score I got docked a .25 point on my rate. (for those that don't know, at 700, you have excellent credit). Problem #2, declining home values due to foreclosures. I bought my house 6 years ago, with an appraised value of $250,000. Since then, I've put $48,000 into the house - not in maintenance, not in repairs, in upgrades, ceramic tile floors, wood floors, new appliances, etc. My house just appraised for $250,000. That affects everyone -had I been able to refinance, it would of saved me $300 a month. At least part of that $300 would of went somewhere, wal mart, best buy, leaders edge. Now just take my situation and say it happened to 1 out of every 1000 people in this country....how much $$ is that, not being spent in our economy. I don't know, I'm too tired to calculate it.
I also don't think it's as bad as the media want you to believe. As Mills said, why are the malls packed every time in every town he goes to. Here's another one, I've been out to dinner at a pasta place and steak house the last 2 Saturday nights, in 2 very different towns, Greenfield and Carmel, at 8 pm, and had almost an hour wait at both locations. Sure there are record foreclosures - we also have record home ownership right now too. I realize, I'm being a bit sarcastic there, but it's true. And the unemployment #s are the same thing....the amount of people unemployed right now, the media will say is the same amount as in the height of the depression...COME ON!!! We have how many more millions of people living in the country now than then.....you have to look at %'s. Trust me, I know better than anyone the effect the media has on people's minds....I field 20 calls every day about the latest newspaper article or news segment that got people to forget about their long term goals.
Another problem this economy/country has is we reward people for the wrong reasons. Case in point, and let me perfectly clear...I am sensitive to people losing their jobs...it's terrible. My wife was an architect for the same small home builder for 17 years, straight out of high school. 3 months ago she lost her job. She saw this coming, was proactive and took on a part time job at the local library, making 75% LESS, than what she had been, so she at least was doing something. Not once drawing a dime of unemployment. The boss's brother on the other hand, fully capable of finding another job, is drawing unemployment, sitting at home drinking PBR every day. We actually would of been better off for my wife to do the same thing (minus the PBR, lol) and not have to pay childcare for our son. A family friend of ours unfortuanately lost their job last week. He was told by his case worker (not sure if thats the right name), in no uncertain terms, DO NOT interview for any job where you will make less than what you were, or your benefits will end. That's just stupid....there are cases when making less is worthwhile, shorter commute, better advancement opportunities, the least of which is being employed!!! Back to my headline at the top of the post....there are jobs out there, they are just in different fields, which leads me to this....
We WERE a manufacturing economy/country. My Grandfather retired from Ford after 35+ years, and he would roll over in his grave and probably slap me if he knew my opinion of things. The jobs left the country because they were overpriced in our country. You can't pay someone $60/hr with benefits to put a clamp on a rubber hose 50 times a day and expect to remain profitable. I don't care what the industry is.
Things are changing....think back 20 years ago. How many jobs were there in software design, internet design, IT, etc. We are a technology economy/country now imho. What needs to happen - in a nutshell - we need the next internet to evolve. What is it... imho mass transit....I'm not talking buses, and traditional trains, I'm speaking of the mono rail stuff. It needs to be built just like the interstate system was. I know the larger cities already have some of this, but I'm talking about linking the whole country this way. Think of the job creation, the new industry it creates. It actually combines the manufacturing and technology fields.
The markets - honestly, it's all oversold on fear. That doesn't mean we're at the bottom, but there are ridiculous opportunities out there right now. Good companies have been beat down with bad. It's ok for some companies to fail and go out of business....this is what we call capitalism. My last rant is this...the markets woudn't have been nearly as beaten down, if they would ban shorting stocks. For those that don't know, shorting is basically betting the stock goes down. To me, it's practically unAmerican....it goes against everything this country was based on by our forefathers. You don't like a stock, fine, don't buy it, buy something else. But IMHO I think it should be illegal to short a stock, causing the price to go down so quickly. That's a lot of what this has been....a large number of people shorting financial companies, over and over and over.
Just my 2 cents guys and gals, sorry for the rant. Just couldn't take it anymore
